Just quickly – playing around with ideas, thought I would have a look at results in AFL markets when favourites flip. Using Pinnacle opening and closing lines for AFL R1 2013 to R4 2016 Opening home favourite becomes underdog Occurrences:11 Ave opening odds:$1.795 Ave Closing odds:$2.123 Closing favourite record:7 wins 4 losses Opening home underdog becomes […]Read more "When Favorites Flip"
Some time ago I quickly looked at the relationship between the number of close (close being defined as <= 12 points) wins and losses in a season and performance in the subsequent season. You can read that here. In short – Since 2003 there has been 19 teams with 5 or more losses by 12 […]Read more "close games and season win totals revisited"
just a quick one…… Mick Malthouse came out with this on the weekend: We won two games I think by under goal (last year) and we lost 9 or 10 by under 15 points or something like that. I don’t think that’s an accident. If it was just luck, you’d go 6-5. It’s not luck, […]Read more "CLOSE AFL GAMES AND SEASON WIN TOTALS."